Brock Purdy’s current contract is one of the simplest in the NFL.
It’s four years. No options. It’s worth $3.7 million over that span. No bonuses beyond his signing bonus: $77,000, the NFL’s equivalent of telling a barista to keep the change.
But that straightforward, small deal is what makes his next contract so convoluted.
The negotiations loom large for the San Francisco 49ers — and the urgency for a new (and massive) deal will grow, starting this offseason when he is eligible for an extension for the first time. To make matters complicated, he showed more vulnerabilities in 2024 than we’d ever seen. He has played his worst when the financial stakes were on the line.
On one hand, he’s not negotiating from a position of power. His contract is the most team-friendly situation in the NFL. He isn’t playing well. And he is a recent Mr. Irrelevant, which means there likely aren’t many general managers around the league who liked him coming out of the draft three years ago and are now thinking: Let’s build around that.
On the other hand, he’s a star quarterback, who posted 4,280 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 2023. He’s 4-2 in the playoffs. If the 49ers aren’t going to pay him, somebody else will. And if that other team gets Purdy back into 2023 form, that’ll jeopardize the employment of GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan, if they don’t find a comparable replacement.
There’s still a lot we don’t know about their upcoming negotiations: Where does Purdy think his value sits? Would he hold out for Dak Prescott’s $60 million annual salary? And just how badly do the 49ers like Purdy, or feel they need him, for them to succeed?
We’ve never seen a contract mushroom like Purdy’s soon will. He’s set to earn $1 million in 2025. With an extension, his salary-cap hit could multiply anywhere between 50-60 times.
If it’s the higher end, the 49ers have to account for where to create that $59 million per year. Salary cap math is just as much voodoo as it is science. But just for a frame of context, you can add up cap hits for left tackle Trent Williams ($22 million), receiver Deebo Samuel ($16 million), running back Christian McCaffrey ($10 million) and edge Leonard Floyd ($10 million) and you get $58 million. I’m not saying that if you sign Purdy, you instantly lose all those players. Or any of them (right away). The 49ers have $66 million in cap space, per Over The Cap. They can actually afford Purdy’s new deal. But times have been fat and happy around San Francisco. It’s going to get lean with Purdy getting paid.
Look at how the Chiefs and Bills had to make tough decisions over recent years. A quarterback extension changes the financial foundation of a team. Since Patrick Mahomes’ landmark extension, the Chiefs have shed Pro Bowl talent, parting ways with cornerback La’Jarius Snead (2024), tackle Orlando Brown (2023) and receiver Tyreek Hill (2022). And the Bills had a massive offseason of turnover in 2024 (which is what I think the aging 49ers might have to do), with the departures of receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, cornerback Tre’Davious White, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and center Mitch Morse. That’s largely because of Josh Allen’s contract.
That’s what would come next for San Francisco.
You lose your stars in the offseason because of the quarterback.
But you keep winning during the season — because of your quarterback.
Is that how it’ll look for Purdy?
Is Purdy to blame for 49ers’ poor showing versus Rams?
The 49ers might be getting a preview of what’s to come. After coming within a play of winning the Super Bowl last season, injuries have hampered their 2024 output as much as any team in the league, with Williams, Samuel, McCaffery, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle each missing multiple games, and that’s just on offense. McCaffrey and Aiyuk have been absent for the majority of the season.
Meanwhile, Purdy has toiled over how much he can step up for the 49ers. He seems to want to take over games, but he lacks the talent to do it. Every week has been a game of Goldilocks: too hot, too cold, just right.
Week 7 against Kansas City? Too hot. Too brash. Too bold. He was 17 of 31 for 212 yards and three interceptions with two rushing touchdowns. He missed a few touchdown opportunities by underthrowing his receivers. Afterward, Shanahan and Purdy had a long conversation in front of the QB’s locker — in front of the media, a rare public display from Shanahan.
“Is there more pressure to put on a Superman cape and do more? No,” Purdy said postgame. “We have a lot of talent, in my eyes.”
Week 12 against Buffalo? Too cold. Literally, it was frigid and snowy. Purdy couldn’t get anything going, continuing his history of struggles in inclement weather: 11 of 18 for 94 yards and two carries for four yards. That’s it. That’s the whole stat line. Definitely too cold.
“It sucks,” Purdy said postgame. “Now here we are, 5-7. That’s just the reality of it. That’s the NFL. But we got to man up and do something about it, and we have the right guys in the locker room to do that. I know that. I have faith in that. And it starts with myself, too. I got to do my job better.”
Week 13 against the Bears? Just right. Purdy seemed to understand his role in the offense as a distributor, even when his guys were the replacements for the stars. Purdy leaned on Kittle (151 receiving yards), receiver Jauan Jennings (90 receiving yards) and running back Isaac Guerendo (128 scrimmage yards). The 49ers blew out the Bears, 38-13, and Purdy had three passing touchdowns. Apparently, Purdy gave a pregame speech that was electric.
“He’s a tremendous leader,” Lynch said. “First of all, how he played versus the Bears, I saw a guy play with conviction, with confidence, with a competitive spirit and then he just played the game at a really high level. Threaded the needle on some of those balls. Great accuracy. He played aggressive. It was really vintage Brock.”
You can argue that Purdy’s season is mostly a product of game plans gone awry — and through factors beyond his control. Purdy had no say in the slow negotiations over Aiyuk and Williams’ contracts, which bled into slow starts for both players. Aiyuk and McCaffrey’s injuries were a strike of terrible luck. And it didn’t help that this seemed to be the season that NFL defenses figured out how to slow down the Shanahan offense. Just ask C.J. Stroud and once-in-demand offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik how that has felt for them. (They run Shanahan’s system.) It wouldn’t hurt Shanahan to look at how Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, with embattled QB Sam Darnold, has evolved his offense since working under Sean McVay.
But it’s also on a franchise quarterback to put out these fires and create a sense of continuity — even when there isn’t any. When you get back to the shift in salary cap numbers, you’ll get back to the talent drain of his supporting cast members who (if we’re trusting what we saw in 2024) are essential to his success.
And speaking of Darnold, he’s set to enter free agency after this season. He spent a year in San Francisco, which seemed to be the turning point in his career. Might he interest Shanahan? Maybe for $35-$40 million per year? And speaking of the 2025 offseason, the draft is lacking in top-tier talent but has a fairly robust stock of Day 2 quarterbacks. I could see Shanahan liking the unique mix of arm talent and athleticism that comes with prospects like Jalen Milroe, Quinn Ewers and/or Jaxson Dart. If the 49ers don’t like the quarterbacks in this year’s class, they could take a look at the 2026 class if Purdy’s negotiations span through the 2025 regular season.
Has 49ers’ Super Bowl window officially closed?
The 49ers don’t have to rush with Purdy.
He’s on his rookie deal through 2025. The franchise tag is technically an option through 2028 — even if they’d really only use it once to get through 2026.
We keep saying that, at some point, an NFL team will buck the trend of paying quarterbacks and pushing up the market. Because I think we can be honest that it’s getting out of hand. Jordan Love is clearly a good quarterback, but he got $220 million ($55M/year) after just one season as a starter. Trevor Lawrence got $275 million ($55M/year) after accomplishing absolutely nothing. Dak is a prolific passer, but are we sure he’s worth $60 million per year? Just wait to see what Mahomes and Allen get this offseason when they re-up.
If there’s any coach-GM combo that can pull off rebuking their QB’s contract demands, it’s Shanahan and Lynch. Think about how they transitioned seamlessly from Jimmy Garoppolo to Purdy in 2022 and how rapidly Garoppolo’s play declined after leaving San Francisco. Purdy is a better player than Garoppolo. (That was abundantly clear in 2022 when Purdy improved the offense that Garoppolo had been running.) But Garoppolo’s decline makes you wonder if Shanahan and the 49ers skill players have been holding up Purdy’s production, which would make him replaceable.
I don’t think the 49ers will have the guts to replace Purdy. Shanahan still loves Purdy despite their rough season, per MMQB’s Albert Breer. But this year has done enough to cast doubt on whether Purdy will only be as good as his supporting cast. That kind of QB won’t do well when he makes $60 million per season. And that kind of contract can wreck a franchise for the foreseeable future. It would be wise to at least wait out 2025, because even if they end up paying $65 million per year in 2026, they can do it with confidence.
You can’t have strong confidence in Purdy after what he did in 2024.
You can’t — with any certainty — say he deserves to reset the market for any reason other than modern convention: he’s next.
You can’t pay Purdy. Not yet.
Draft a quarterback. Deal with the headlines and the optics and the awkwardness. If a rookie craters Purdy’s confidence, then you probably don’t want him anyway. But, most of all, see if Purdy can earn his record-setting deal in a make-or-break 2025 season. Make sure the 2024 season was the exception — not the rule — for Purdy.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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