NEW DELHI: The stage is set for a ‘maha’ battle in Maharashtra as the state prepares to vote for 288 assembly seats in a single phase on November 20. At the surface level, the fight is clear — the ruling Mahayuti vs Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Mahayuti includes chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress party (NCP). On the other side in MVA are Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
The battle of Maharashtra is however not so simple. As voters decide their representatives on 288 assembly seats, the politicians will fight it out for their prestige, legacy and popularity. In short, there are several mini-fights within this battle that cannot be missed.
If you are also confused about who is the real Sena, what is the uncle vs nephew fight and more, here’s a quick guide of all you need to know as Maharashtra decides its champion.
Tale of two blocs — Mahayuti vs MVA
At the state level, the ruling Mahayuti and MVA are contesting the assembly elections to form the next government. Both alliances also have three major parties. The biggest challenge for both sides was to agree on the seat-sharing agreement which was not decided till the last moment. The scenario got clearer only after all the nomination papers were filed.
In Mahayuti, BJP got the biggest share and is contesting on 149 of a total of 288 seats. CM Shinde’s Sena is fighting on 81 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP on 56 seats.
On the other side, in MVA, Congress got 101 seats, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena 94 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP got 85 seats.
Meanwhile, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Peasants and Workers Party of India, which are part of MVA, have nominated nine and four candidates each.
Sena vs Sena
Maharashtra fight is also a high-stake legacy battle in which Bal Thackeray’s heritage is at stake. Bal Thackeray’s party Shiv Sena was divided into two factions as Eknath Shinde broke away from Uddhav. To understand this better, let’s take a step back.
In the last Maharashtra assembly elections in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena fought the polls as part of the NDA against Congress-NCP-led UPA.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by BJP-Shiv Sena, secured a clear majority in the 288-seat assembly. However, disagreements emerged over the chief ministerial position. Despite having only 56 seats, Shiv Sena insisted on appointing Uddhav Thackeray, Balasaheb Thackeray’s successor, as Maharashtra’s top leader. The BJP, which won 105 seats, remained firm on having Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister.
The political impasse resulted in Shiv Sena’s departure from the NDA, ending their long-term political association. This development benefited the Congress-NCP alliance, as Shiv Sena made an unexpected political shift by joining them to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
By November 2019, Maharashtra witnessed the formation of an MVA government, with Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray assuming the role of chief minister, with the support of NCP and Congress.
In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a section of Shiv Sena MLAs to rebel against the leadership of then-party president and chief minister Uddhav Thackeray. After the split, the Shinde-led party formed an alliance government with the BJP and he took over as chief minister.
Now although the Supreme Court is yet to pronounce its verdict on the plea challenging the Maharashtra speaker’s order declaring the Shinde-led Sena the real Sena, the two factions will fight it out in the upcoming elections for the identity of the party.
Out of 288 seats, the two Senas are in direct contest on 51 seats.
In 2019, the undivided Sena won 56 seats in alliance with BJP. Out of these, 41 MLAs joined the Shinde faction and 15 remained with Uddhav Thackeray.
Uncle vs nephew vs nephew
Identical to the Sena fight, the Maharashtra battlefield will also see the NCP vs NCP contest while Pawar Senior and Junior fight the prestige battle. Like Sena, there was another party split in Maharashtra that changed the political landscape of the state.
The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) emerged in 1999 following a significant split when Sharad Pawar, PA Sangma and Tariq Anwar challenged the leadership credentials of Sonia Gandhi, who was then heading Congress party. Despite its initial stance against Congress and Sonia Gandhi’s leadership, the NCP subsequently modified its position and became part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance coalition in 2004.
The party, as part of the MVA coalition, supported Uddhav Thackeray as Maharashtra CM.
However, after Shinde’s move, in July 2022, the NCP was also divided when Ajit Pawar, along with 40 MLAs, aligned with the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti coalition. Subsequently, he was appointed as deputy chief minister, accompanied by eight other leaders who received ministerial positions.
Senior politician Sharad Pawar retained the support of approximately 15 MLAs. Based on these numbers, the Election Commission of India officially recognised the Ajit Pawar-led faction as the ‘real’ NCP.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the undivided NCP had won 53 seats. Now, both factions of the NCP are in direct fight on 36 seats across the state.
Meanwhile, Ajit Pawar who broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar, is now in direct contest with his nephew Yugendra Pawar in the assembly elections. Yugendra was fielded by Sharad Pawar from Baramati against seven-time MLA Ajit Pawar.
In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule defeated Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat by a huge margin of 1,58,333 votes. Ajit Pawar, who had then admitted that bringing politics in the family by making his wife contest against cousin Supriya was a mistake, this time around has gone on the offensive against his uncle Sharad Pawar. Ajit has accused Sharad Pawar of creating a split within the family and taking politics to a low level.
BJP vs Congress
The two national parties, BJP and Congress got the biggest chunk of seat share in their respective alliance. As part of Mahayuti, BJP has fielded candidates on 149 seats and Congress, as part of MVA, is contesting on 101 seats.
Out of these, the two parties are in direct contest on 75 seats, mostly in the Vidarbha region.
Spanning across the Naxal-impacted region of Gadchiroli and extending to Nagpur, where the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological foundation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), maintains its headquarters, this area represents the core of the state’s socio-political landscape.
The direct flight is also for Mumbai, Thane and Pune.
In the 2019 assembly elections, Congress and BJP were in direct fight on 66 seats of which, Congress managed to secure only 16, while the BJP claimed 50.
Make or break fight: Who will prevail?
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections marked a significant shift in Maharashtra’s political landscape, being the first polls after recent power realignments. The Mahayuti won only 17 seats.
Congress secured the highest number of seats, clinching 13 out of the total 48 constituencies. Both the Shiv Sena-UBT and the BJP got equal representation with 9 seats each, whilst Sharad Pawar’s NCP managed to win 8 constituencies.
All eyes are now on the high-stake battle for 288 assembly seats that will be held on November 20. Who holds the power in Maharashtra — Mahayuti or MVA, come November 23 we will know. The Election Commission may have decided who the real Sena and NCP are but it would be interesting to see if the voters favour the OG Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray or not.
