US President Donald Trump is urging Ukraine to make major concessions to end the war with Russia. Many Ukrainians reject his proposal. What do analysts have to say about the US peace plan?
Is US President Donald Trump’s proposal for a peaceful end to the Ukraine conflict too Russia friendly? Axios news platform and other Western media outlets report that Trump’s peace plan entails US recognition of Moscow’s de jure control over Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula — which was annexed by Russia — as well as recognizing Moscow’s de facto occupation of parts of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Trump’s proposal also includes a promise that Ukraine will not become a Nato member but may possibly join the EU. It also envisions lifting sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014, as well as boosting economic cooperation with the US, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
According to Axios, Trump’s plan involves freezing Ukrainian frontlines and granting Ukraine security guarantees. So far, however, no details have been given as to what these guarantees would entail. Ukraine will be offered the return of a small part of the Russian-occupied Kharkiv region and will be granted unhindered passage along the Dnipro River, which runs along Ukraine’s southern frontline.
What is Ukraine’s actual situation?
Serhii Kuzan, who heads the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation think tank, told DW Ukraine’s outlook is not as bad as Trump thinks. “The Ukrainian armed forces are achieving tactical successes in certain sections along the front, the country’s arms industry is growing, and Ukraine’s European partners are backing and supporting it even more. Our situation is much better than it was a year ago.”
Even so, Kuzan conceded that Russia had also achieved tactical battlefield successes, made some advances and captured a few small Ukrainian towns in the east of the country. Yet none of this, Kuzan said, was of strategic importance.
“Russian claims that our defense is collapsing and that they will occupy the whole of Ukraine is wishful thinking,” Kuzan told DW. “They simply do not have the reserves for that.”
Hanna Shelest of the Ukrainian Prism think tank Prism believes that whenever US President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff returns from Moscow, he does so with a “Russian version of reality” according to which Russia is stronger and can continue the war for longer than Ukraine, which is supposedly weak and not needed by anybody.
“That’s why Trump is firmly convinced he’s doing something good for Ukraine,” Shelest told DW. For this same reason she urges anyone visiting the White House and meeting Trump to explain Ukraine’s perspective to him.
What does the future hold for Ukraine?
Observers agree that Trump’s proposals to legally recognize Crimea as Russian territory will be widely rejected. The situation is more complicated when it comes to barring Ukraine from joining Nato.
“Pressure will be exerted on Ukraine to dissuade it from joining Nato,” Shelest told DW. “It would be best for us if this question remained open. If it were not clearly stated that Ukraine has a right to join Nato, then one could unofficially promise Ukraine membership, which would not happen immediately. The political situation in Washington and Moscow, after all, could also change at some point.”
Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, meanwhile, believes that the US is on the wrong track because it is pressuring Ukraine to make significant concessions. At the same time, the US is accommodating Russia, even though both warring parties appear equally strong on the frontlines, Fesenko says, regardless of what Trump thinks.
As the US has so far failed to force Ukraine into an unfavorable peace agreement, Washington could try to take a break from negotiations until a more favorable moment arises, Fesenko says. “That’s bad for us, but definitely not any worse than recognizing Crimea as Russian, because what would follow would be even worse: further regions and demands.”
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, meanwhile, told the BBC that Ukraine may need to cede territory. “There is a lot of discussion about a possible settlement,” Klitschko told the outlet. “One of the scenarios is the cession of territory. That is unfair. But for the sake of peace, a temporary peace, this could perhaps be a temporary solution.”
Klitschko also said Ukrainian President Zelensky may be “forced to make a painful decision” as US President Trump increases the pressure on Ukraine.
