Delhi elections exit polls: Poll of polls predict shock AAP exit, return of BJP to Delhi after 27 years | India News

newyhub
7 Min Read


Several exit polls conducted on Wednesday forecasted a win for the BJP over the ruling AAP in the Delhi assembly elections, while Congress was expected to gain little compared to previous elections. However, two exit polls indicated a potential victory for AAP, with several others suggesting a tight race favouring the BJP.
A poll of polls suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will regain power after 27 years, with predictions suggesting it may secure around 40 seats in the 70-member assembly. This would allow them to surpass the majority mark of 36 seats required to form a government.

In contrast, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has held power for two consecutive full terms, is forecasted to win approximately 30 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress party is expected to struggle significantly, with projections indicating they may secure only 0 to 1 seat.
The Election Commission will release official results following the counting on February 8. Exit polls are predictions made by election survey agencies based on voter interviews immediately after they cast their votes, but they can differ significantly from actual outcomes. In the 2020 Delhi elections, many exit polls miscalculated their forecasts.
Among those predicting a BJP victory, People’s Pulse estimated that the NDA could secure between 51 and 60 seats, while AAP might obtain 10-19 seats, with Congress failing to win any. People’s Insight suggested the NDA would get 40-44 seats, AAP 25-29 seats, and Congress 0-1 seat. The P-Marq poll projected 39-49 seats for BJP and allies, 21-31 for AAP, and 0-1 for Congress. JVC’s exit poll indicated BJP and allies would achieve 39-45 seats, AAP 22-31 seats, and Congress 0-2. Poll Diary anticipated 42-50 seats for BJP and allies, while assigning AAP 18-25 seats and Congress 0-2. Chanakya Strategies forecasted BJP and allies at 39-44 seats, AAP at 25-28, and Congress at 2-3.
Two surveys predicted AAP’s success: Wee Preside estimated AAP at 46-52 seats against BJP’s 18-23 and Congress’s 0-1; Mind Brink Media projected AAP at 44-49 seats with BJP at 21-25 and Congress at 0-1.
Matrize suggested a close contest with BJP-led NDA at 35-40 seats and AAP at 32-37, giving Congress 0-1 seats.
DV Research anticipated AAP would secure between 26-34 seats while BJP and allies would get 36-44, again predicting zero for Congress.
In the Delhi assembly of 70 members, a majority requires 36 seats. Currently, AAP holds 62 MLAs, BJP has eight, and Congress has none. The assembly elections took place on Wednesday, with results due on February 8. Approximately 58% of Delhi’s 1.55 crore voters participated by 5pm on Wednesday.
Several AAP leaders dismissed the exit polls’ predictions, while BJP officials expressed confidence in their anticipated victory.
The political dynamics in Delhi have shifted dramatically since the rise of AAP in 2013, which disrupted Congress’s long-standing dominance in the region. The last two elections saw AAP winning decisively, with substantial majorities. However, recent trends suggest that voter sentiment may be changing, possibly influenced by various factors including governance issues and allegations of corruption against AAP leaders.
Historically, exit polls have had mixed accuracy in predicting outcomes in Delhi elections. For instance, while they correctly anticipated AAP’s victories in previous elections, they often underestimated the scale of those wins. In 2015 and 2020, exit polls projected closer contests than what ultimately transpired.



//
Share This Article
Leave a comment