WASHINGTON: An American historian dubbed the “Election Nostradamus” for getting nine out of the last ten presidential elections correct, says Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the outcome of the US Presidential elections not on the basis of polls and surveys, but on “13 keys” he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.They include metrics such as incumbency, midterm gains, third party candidates, short-term economy, long-term economy, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, foreign policy failure and success.
His call for 2024: Kamala Harris is good on eight of the 13 metrics and therefore has the keys to the White House.
Most famously, Lichtman had predicted Donald Trump‘s unexpected victory in 2016 (against all odds and poll forecasts), although some critics say he had actually predicted Trump would win the popular vote (Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes). His only failure came in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win against George Bush — and he was technically correct there too considering Gore won the popular vote and the electoral college vote was decided by the US Supreme Court.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, while three favor Trump. The keys that benefit Trump include the party that controls White House gaining House seats in the 2022 midterm elections; the sitting president or vice-president running for reelection; and Harris, in his view, lacking charisma.
The remaining two keys, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip in Trump’s favor before the election, he says, but the eight that goes for Harris is enough to win her the White House.
Most traditional polls continue to show Harris ahead, but her lead is within the margin of error with two months to go before Election Day, although early voting in many states starts the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.
Both sides are boasting of defections from opposite ranks: The Trump campaign on Tuesday claimed support from the Harris’ running mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and other family members. On Wednesday, the Harris campaign was chuffed by endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney, who was one of senior GOP leaders in Congress before she fell out with Trump. A hardcore conservative, she is also the daughter of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, who served under George Bush. She said would vote for Harris because of the danger Trump poses to the United States.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the outcome of the US Presidential elections not on the basis of polls and surveys, but on “13 keys” he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.They include metrics such as incumbency, midterm gains, third party candidates, short-term economy, long-term economy, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, foreign policy failure and success.
His call for 2024: Kamala Harris is good on eight of the 13 metrics and therefore has the keys to the White House.
Most famously, Lichtman had predicted Donald Trump‘s unexpected victory in 2016 (against all odds and poll forecasts), although some critics say he had actually predicted Trump would win the popular vote (Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes). His only failure came in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would win against George Bush — and he was technically correct there too considering Gore won the popular vote and the electoral college vote was decided by the US Supreme Court.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, while three favor Trump. The keys that benefit Trump include the party that controls White House gaining House seats in the 2022 midterm elections; the sitting president or vice-president running for reelection; and Harris, in his view, lacking charisma.
The remaining two keys, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip in Trump’s favor before the election, he says, but the eight that goes for Harris is enough to win her the White House.
Most traditional polls continue to show Harris ahead, but her lead is within the margin of error with two months to go before Election Day, although early voting in many states starts the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.
Both sides are boasting of defections from opposite ranks: The Trump campaign on Tuesday claimed support from the Harris’ running mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and other family members. On Wednesday, the Harris campaign was chuffed by endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney, who was one of senior GOP leaders in Congress before she fell out with Trump. A hardcore conservative, she is also the daughter of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, who served under George Bush. She said would vote for Harris because of the danger Trump poses to the United States.
