NEW DELHI: The exit polls have got it wrong once again. In Haryana, the BJP has scored an emphatic victory over the Congress, while in J&K, the National Conference-Congress alliance has won a majority. Both these results are contrary to what the pollsters had predicted in the exit polls.
The poll of exit polls in Haryana had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress with most of the pollsters giving the grand-old-party above 50 seats and the BJP under 30.In J&K, the pollsters had predicted a hung assembly with the National Conference-Congress alliance ahead of the BJP.
The exit polls had predicted a good show by the Congress in Haryana. Matrize gave 55 to 62 seats to the Congress, and only 18 to 24 seats to the ruling BJP. People’s Pulse gave Congress 49 to 61 seats while the BJP 20 to 32 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicted 44 to 54 seats for the Congress and 15 to 29 seats for the BJP. Dhruv Research gave 50 to 64 seats to the Congress and 22-32 seats to the BJP. However, the actual results are way off the mark, raising questions on the reliability of the exit poll process.
In J&K, all the exit polls had given the National Conference and Congress alliance advantage but had predicted a hung assembly. The C-Voter-survey had projected the National Conference-Congress alliance would win 40-48 seats, while the BJP 20-25 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicted the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance to win 35-40 seats and the BJP to secure 20-25 seats. Axis My India polls predicted the NC-Congress alliance to win between 35 and 45 seats and the BJP 24-34 seats. However, the final results show a comfortable majority for the Congress and NC alliance.
National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah was not off the mark when he had called the exit polls “just time pass”. “I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp Etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass,” Abdullah had posted on X despite the fact that most of the exit polls had given his party an edge.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all exit polls had failed to catch the pulse of voters as they predicted landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA. However, as it turned out, the NDA finished with just 293 seats when the actual results came. Unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to win simple majority on its own and ended up with 240 seats. This was 63 seats less from the 303 seats they had previously won in 2019. The Congress-led INDIA bloc bagged 235 seats proving most of the exit polls inaccurate. In the past also, there have been several elections when exit polls have failed to predict the results correctly.
