UDF has nominated only one woman candidate and LDF three.But NDA already has four in the fray, with its leadership saying their focus is the woman voter.
Their under-representation by itself may not influence women’s voting patterns since they don’t really have a choice between major parties in this respect. Traditionally, urban women voters have shown a preference for UDF, though in the 2021 assembly polls, the majority of women voted LDF.
Women in Kerala politics have never been considered electoral influencers, yet this year there is a churning of votes in this segment. Ex perts feel the Kerala woman voter will be the game-changer as the churn will happen in traditional vote segments, not just the minorities.
The upper-caste Hindu woman’s vote is likely to be strongly in favour of NDA, while votes of women from other Hindu communities will be divided between the three fronts. Muslim women’s vote is likely to be split between LDF and UDF, experts say. Modi is also a strong influencer in Kerala, they add.
Between Modi fans and Modi fear, this Lok Sabha election will probably see UDF getting the edge, simply because the Muslim votes will be split between LDF and UDF, while Christian votes are likely to tilt towards UDF.
Forcing its way into a triangular contest, NDA — for the first time — has put up strong candidates who appeal to urban women and professionals. It has kept away traditional faces, in keeping with the Indian dream of development, urbanisation and jobs. Kerala sees a large number of students and youths going out of the state and country for jobs. This group doesn’t see a threat to democracy and secularism with NDA continuing at the Centre and it is this voter that the NDA hopes to bring into its fold.
“There are strong indications of a split in women’s votes,” said K M Sajad Ibrahim, a psephologist and political analyst with Lokniti. “The BJP/NDA vote share has been between 15% and 18% in the last few elections. This is a strong growth from around 12% in 2011. They would need a 20% to 21% vote share and women will play a role. LDF is slightly weak because these are parliamentary elections and CPM is fighting to remain a national party. CPI has already lost that status.”
The parties themselves are aware of this. “The fight is between Congress and BJP as far as Hindu women voters are concerned. In sharp contrast, it is the young Muslim woman voter who is leaning towards LDF, taken in by the strong stand of the chief minister and LDF against the Centre,” Ibrahim added.
“Women politicians are few and far between in the state, which is seen as largely patriarchal. The harsh truth is that despite all the talk about the state’s women’s population and influence, they do not constitute a bloc in electoral politics. That’s why there are no big women’s names in Kerala politics,” said Prof G Gopakumar, a political scientist and analyst.
“The elections in Kerala will be closely fought in triangular contests in many places, with UDF gaining an edge,” Gopakumar added. “A larger share of women will vote for UDF followed by LDF and BJP. Neither Uniform Civil Code nor CAA is an issue in Kerala politics. We have not seen any major discussion despite several attempts to raise it.” If one objects to CAA, it is seen as appealing for Muslim votes; if one supports the legislation, it’s construed as support for Hindu nationalism. Hence the silence, feels Gopakumar.
A section of women’s rights activists feels they would disregard the issues of non-representation and 33% reservation if the antisaffron parties were serious about keeping Hindutva forces away. “The candidate selection, both of UDF and LDF, is pathetic,” fumed social critic J Devika. “There is a tendency to put up women candidates where chances of winning are less.
Despite getting a large chunk of women’s votes, they have just the sitting MP contesting in the seat. As for LDF, what is the logic of fielding Annie Raja in Wayanad, where no one knows her? They could have given her a seat in Kozhikode or Thrissur, where she is more popular. Even in the case of Vadakara, where K K Shailaja is contesting, can you deny K K Rema’s influence in the constituency?”
The highest number of women voters — 30.3 lakh — is in the age group of 40-49 years, followed by 27.3 lakh voters in the 50-59 age group and about 26.3 lakh in the 30-39 age group. With the majority of women voters aged 40-plus, it will be interesting to see whether their preference for LDF is repeated in 2024 or whether UDF recovers ground among women, especially in rural Kerala. There’s also the question of how much support the NDA can corner this time?
Writer C S Chandrika says most urban and young women are likely to vote LDF, as CM Pinarayi Vijayan has been standing as a wall against custom and orthodoxy. “I wouldn’t go so far as to say that most educated and urban women will vote for LDF, but I believe that young women, including Muslim girls, are likely to vote for LDF, breaking with the traditional voting pattern in favour of UDF.”
There’s also the feeling that young Muslim women in Kerala are ready to shrug off patriarchal attitudes and traditions being imposed on them by religion. Most of them would like to make that choice on their own, and LDF is seen as attempting to woo them away from Muslim League and UDF. In this, these women are one with the urban Hindu woman, who is raring to ignore her family’s political leanings and vote according to her own choice.
There is also growing discontent over UDF’s perceived “soft opposition” to NDA’s pro-Hindutva decisions. Sensing this, the Muslim leadership has been sending out feelers to youths to make their choice wisely.
Muhammad Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal, president of Samastha Kerala Jamiyyathul Ulama, recently announced they would not openly oppose LDF candidate K S Hamza, an expelled Muslim League leader, in Ponnani as there’s a strong anti-League group in the Samastha, who are mostly young cadre.
It is this churning that will define the electoral outcome in Kerala, which has no more than a handful of known women politicians. “They are not groomed or allowed to grow. Even if they are given a party post or position, it is taken away. But in the case of men, they are groomed for leadership. There is no point in being an active student leader only to fade away at 25 and attempt to return at 60. In all other professions, there are women leaders, but their scarcity persists in the political and electoral narrative of Kerala,” Gopakumar said.
