The global economy may be heading toward a slowdown, with some experts warning of a potential recession. Concerns are mounting over the United States’ decision to impose higher tariffs on imports, a move that could disrupt global trade, supply chains, and economic growth if implemented in April as planned.
Experts sound the alarm
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, said that the proposed US tariffs could affect inflation and delay easing policies by central banks worldwide. “Countries more dependent on exports will face challenges here as their growth will be affected. India, being a domestic-oriented economy, will be buffered to a large extent on the growth front, though it will be impacted by sharp currency volatility,” Sabnavis said as quoted by ANI.
Ajay Bagga, a banking and global market expert, echoed these concerns, warning that tariff-related disruptions could push parts of the world into a recession. “The global supply chain is deeply interconnected—raw materials from one country, processing in another, and assembly elsewhere. Any disruption could lead to degrowth in certain regions. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for the US Q1 2025 is already showing a negative print of -2.4%, illustrating the potential impact of widespread tariff disruptions,” Bagga said.
How will India be affected?
Experts believe that while India’s economy is largely domestic-driven and somewhat insulated from direct trade disruptions, it is not entirely immune. Sabnavis noted that currency volatility could be a major concern, making international trade unpredictable for businesses.
While it remains uncertain whether these tariffs will push the world into a full-blown recession, the risks are rising. If implemented, the new US trade policy could slow down economies globally, affecting both export-heavy nations and emerging markets like India. With uncertainty looming, governments and businesses worldwide are bracing for potential economic turbulence.
