Juan Soto was going to get a hefty payday, regardless. But surely his uptick in production this season in the Bronx will raise the already exorbitant cost for prospective buyers to secure his services.
For other players in this year’s free-agent class, a surprise breakout or resurgent year came at just the right time.
Below we rank the 11 players who increased their value the most with their 2024 production, including reasons to be both excited (green light) and skeptical (red light) about their future output.
1. Juan Soto, OF
2023: 5.5 bWAR/6.0 fWAR
2024: 7.9 bWAR/8.1 fWAR
Green Light: It might feel strange to see him on this list. After all, he was already going to command more money than any free agent this offseason. But putting together the most productive offensive season of his career, and doing it in his first (lone?) season for the Yankees, added many, many millions to the total sum he is about to command. He always had an unrivaled eye at the plate, but his 41 homers and .569 slugging percentage both marked career highs for a full season (he had a ridiculous .351/.490/.695 slash line during the shortened 2020 season). He also hit the ball harder than ever before. By WAR, this was the most valuable season of his career. And, after turning 26 in October, he should just now be entering his prime.
Red Light: If we had to nitpick, it’d be defensively. It was a bit of a farce that Soto was a Gold Glove finalist, and the older he gets, the worse he’ll probably look out there defensively. But, c’mon, it’s Juan Soto. You can live with it.
2. Jurickson Profar, OF
2023 (COL/SD): 0.4 bWAR/-1.6 fWAR
2024 (SD): 3.6 bWAR/4.3 fWAR
Green Light: No one on this list had a more dramatic turnaround in a contract year than Profar, who finished a breakout season setting career highs in every slash line category as well as hits, homers, runs, RBIs and games played. The only qualified National League player with a higher on-base percentage than Profar was Shohei Ohtani. He had the fourth-highest year-over year jump in OBP and the sixth-highest year-over-year jump in slugging percentage in the majors. Coming off a season in which he hit nearly 20% below league average, he suddenly started chasing and whiffing less and hitting the ball significantly harder than ever before. He transformed himself into an All-Star, a decade after everyone expected. As surprising as the breakout was, everything under the hood suggested it wasn’t luck.
Red Light: The former top prospect never did anything like this in his first 10 big-league seasons. This career year came at 31 years old, in his second stop in San Diego after starting the previous year in Colorado and spending time in Texas and Oakland. With a revival that seemingly came out of nowhere, I’m not sure how any team can know with any certainty what to expect going forward. One thing is clear: Wherever he signs next, it won’t be for $1 million again.
3. Luis Severino, RHP
2023: -1.5 bWAR/-0.5 fWAR
2024: 1.6 bWAR/2.1 fWAR
Green Light: Another player who took advantage of a one-year deal, a clean bill of health and an updated repertoire had Severino finding his form again. In his first year making more than 20 starts since his 2018 All-Star season, the right-hander logged 31 outings with the Mets and cut his home run rate in half from where it was the previous year with the Yankees. The addition of a sweeper, which got 60 strikeouts, was particularly useful. While he’s no longer the guy sitting close to 98 mph with a strikeout rate hovering near 30% the way he was as an All-Star in his mid-20s, he demonstrated he can still be plenty effective sitting in the mid-90s. At 31, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to produce.
Red Light: A year ago in the Bronx, Severino was 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA. By WAR, that made him a bottom-10 pitcher in baseball. The 2024 season represented a considerable leap forward, though he still isn’t missing bats the way he once did.
4. Jack Flaherty, RHP
2023: 0.8 bWAR/1.8 fWAR
2024: 3.1 bWAR/3.2 fWAR
Green Light: In a healthy, resurgent 2024 season, Flaherty ditched his cutter, saw a slight uptick in velocity on his four-seamer, got more swings and misses on the pitch and looked like a completely different guy from where he was last year in St. Louis and (especially) Baltimore. He posted the highest chase rate of his career and a significantly elevated whiff rate. While he wasn’t as good in the second half in Los Angeles as he was in the first half in Detroit, his presence in the rotation was crucial in helping the Dodgers win a championship. Even if he’s more of a middle-of-the-rotation arm, he will be an enticing piece at 29.
Red Light: His velocity dipped down the stretch of the season, which he attributed to timing issues, then his production fluctuated with every October start, providing fodder for both believers and skeptics. When he saw a playoff opponent for the first time on extra rest, he usually dominated. When he saw that team for a second time on regular rest, he got torched. His injury history could also cause some trepidation.
5. Sean Manaea, LHP
2023: 0.3 bWAR/1.2 fWAR
2024: 3.0 bWAR/2.8 fWAR
Green Light: Any way you slice it, this was one of the best seasons of Manaea’s career. Take just the second half, after he made the switch to lower his arm slot à la Chris Sale, and his production was unlike anything he had ever done before. Manaea looked like an ace in his final 12 regular-season starts after making the change (10-2, 3.09 ERA, .538 opponents’ OPS) and was clearly the Mets’ top option in October.
Red Light: At 33, how much will teams trust his finish over his eight previous seasons, especially as teams get to adjust? It’s worth pointing out he had an extremely low BABIP after making the switch, which might be unsustainable. Still, even if it doesn’t continue to the same degree, his consistent production after the arm slot change can’t be ignored.
6. Teoscar Hernández, OF
2023: 2.1 bWAR/1.9 fWAR
2024: 4.3 bWAR/3.5 fWAR
Green Light: Hernández didn’t get the offers he was hoping for last winter after a down year in Seattle. So he bet on himself, taking a one-year deal in Los Angeles in the hopes of playing for a winning team and resetting his market. Check, and check. In an All-Star season, Hernández popped a career-high 33 homers, won the Home Run Derby, then won a World Series as a vital cog in the Dodgers’ lineup. He has expressed a desire to return to Los Angeles, but wherever he goes, he can be confident he’ll be getting more than one year this time around.
Red Light: Swing and miss is part of his game, and he doesn’t offer a ton of value defensively. While he should get more multi-year offers, it might not be a particularly long deal for the 31 years old.
7. Willy Adames, SS
2023: 3.0 bWAR/3.3 fWAR
2024: 3.1 bWAR/4.8 fWAR
Green Light: Adames, who just turned 29, is about to get paid. The only reason he’s low on this list is because his value was already so well-established, but his offensive jump shouldn’t be overlooked. Adames set career highs in hits, homers, doubles, RBIs and stolen bases. If he were part of the free-agent class two years ago, he might get lost in the shuffle. This year, though, he’s far and away the best shortstop on the market. His 112 RBIs ranked fourth in the majors, and he was one of six players to log at least 30 homers, 30 doubles and 20 steals.
Red Light: A high whiff rate has contributed to a fluctuating batting average and on-base percentage the past few years, but his combination of defense and power have made him a top-10 shortstop over the past five years.
8. Yusei KIkuchi, LHP
2023: 0.1 bWAR/2.4 fWAR
2024: 1.4 bWAR/3.5 fWAR
Green Light: Kikuchi made a tweak to his pitch usage after getting traded to Houston and became everything the Astros could’ve imagined. Upping his slider usage considerably, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career down the stretch while lowering his ERA from 4.75 in 22 starts with the Blue Jays to 2.70 in 10 starts with the Astros. He finished the year with the eighth-best strikeout rate and 11th-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among all qualified MLB starters.
Red Light: He will turn 34 in June, and while his stuff misses a lot of bats, he also tends to give up a lot of hard contact. Will his next team get the version that looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball in the season’s second half or the one with a career 4.57 ERA?
9. Nick Martinez, RHP
2023: 1.5 bWAR/1.4 fWAR:
2024: 4.0 bWAR/3.5 fWAR:
Green Light: There’s a reason the Reds gave him the qualifying offer. Martinez is coming off the best season of his big-league career, one that featured better command than he had ever demonstrated before (his 3.2% walk rate was the best mark of his career and trailed only George Kirby and Bryan Woo for the lowest mark among pitchers with at least 100 innings). He excelled as both a starter and reliever. Utilizing everything in his six-pitch arsenal — including an elite changeup that’s responsible for most of his swing and miss — Martinez continues to get hitters to chase and has now posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of his three big-league seasons since resurrecting his career in Japan.
Red Light: He turned 34 in August, and it wasn’t until then that the Reds made him a permanent fixture in the rotation. His swingman abilities, however, should allow him to fit in well wherever he goes. It’s fair to question whether he can maintain the control he demonstrated in 2024, but his vast arsenal should allow him to continue keeping hitters off balance and limit hard contact even as his velocity dips.
10. Tyler O’Neill, OF
2023: 0.3 bWAR/0.6 fWAR
2024: 2.6 bWAR/2.5 fWAR
Green Light: It was only three years ago that O’Neill finished eighth in MVP voting, and this year provided a reminder of what’s still in the tank when his body is cooperating. He hit 32% better than league average while zapping the power back into his bat. After slugging .392 in 2022 and .403 in 2023 in St. Louis, a healthier first season in Boston yielded a .511 slugging percentage. He finished the year with 31 homers, the highest walk rate of his career and 113 games played — his most since his breakout 2021 season.
Red Light: He is a bit of a baseball conundrum. One of the game’s most volatile talents, his career-best walk rate also came with an abysmal 33.6% strikeout rate. He can look like a top 10 offensive force one month and replacement level the next. He is no longer the Gold Glove outfielder he was a few years ago, but he’s only 29 and his power is still prodigious when he’s right. Can he stay healthy long enough to tap into it consistently?
11. Joc Pederson, DH
2023: 0.6 bWAR/0.7 fWAR
2024: 2.9 bWAR/3.0 fWAR
Green Light: On a rate basis, Pederson quietly put together the best offensive season of his 11-year career. It was really similar to his 2022 All-Star season in San Francisco, except he reached base more often and punished offspeed pitches more regularly. It was also a massive step forward from his 2023 season. Pederson finished the year with the fourth-highest year-over-year jump in slugging percentage among all qualified batters. He was one of just 10 hitters to post an OPS over .900 in at least 400 plate appearances.
Red Light: His outfield days are probably behind him, and he doesn’t hit lefties. That will limit his suitors, but he demonstrated he can still be a massive offensive boost to a team in need of help against right-handed pitching with a DH spot open.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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