The independent candidates, a vast majority of them supported by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), secured 101 seats in the National Assembly.Three-time former PM Nawaz Sharif‘s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won 75 seats and is technically the single largest party in Parliament. It’s followed by Bilawal Zardari Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party, which got 54 seats.
Upending predictions
In the run up to the elections, poll pundits predicted that comeback man Nawaz Sharif’s victory was but a foregone conclusion. That’s because Nawaz of 2024 is the Imran of 2018 — Pakistan army’s hand-picked candidate.
In its over seven-decade-long history, Pakistan has either been run by the military or candidates backed by the military. In a way, the all-powerful army — unofficially known as the “establishment” — is never out of power.
In 2018, Imran Khan was the army’s “laadla” (blue-eyed boy) who was widely expected to win the mandate. Thus, it was hardly a surprise when PTI made history by emerging as the single-largest party in the polls. But Imran’s fortunes took a turn for the worse when he fell out of favour with the army chief and was eventually removed from power, thrown in jail and barred from contesting the February 8 elections.
The vaccum left behind by Imran was filled by Nawaz Sharif, who made a much-hyped return to the country last year after staying in exile in London. Though Nawaz has historically shared a tense relationship with the army, things changed in 2023 when the 74-year-old former PM decided to cozy up to the establishment to afford one more shot at power.
But in a rare twist of fate, things didn’t go according to the script.
Chink in the armour?
In Pakistan, they say the military has never won a war and never lost an election. Technically, it has now lost one.
The surprise results of the 2024 general election has surely dealt a body blow to the army, whose political partners and proxies are usually assured of a victory.
A closer look at the poll results clearly illustrate this point.
According to a report in New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the two provinces that underpin the military and the deep state — Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — have rebelled against and rejected the military’s narrative.
“Like establishments in rest of the world, the Pakistani military also needs to understand that information can no longer be controlled like it could be in the past. The states and establishments that are unable to adjust to this new reality and continue to use old formula, will have them explode in their faces,” the report said.
This was quite apparent with Imran Khan’s resounding success in the polls despite the odds heavily stacked against him.
Imran Khan’s popularity among Pakistanis has endured, overcoming a litany of setbacks the PTI leader faced in the run up to the elections. Despite heading into the polls with a symbol-less party, no major face and a series of legal battles, Khan managed to deny Nawaz Sharif an easy glidepath to power.
According to ORF, while PML(N) may manage to form a government with the help of allies and indepenedents, it will not make for a “politically tenable or sustainable arrangement.”
This means that Gen Asim Munir might just emerge as the biggest loser of the election since he lost the game despite “fixing” the match.
Moreover, the results beg the question whether the Pakistani miliary is now no longer in control of the narrative.