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With the Karnataka caste survey being seen as a potential game-changer, the deputy CM has been trying to manage the discontent brewing among Vokkaliga leaders
For Shivakumar, it’s more than just caste arithmetic—it’s about political survival. (PTI)
The leaked caste census report has triggered a fresh churn in Karnataka politics. Deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar is working overtime to try and ensure that the powerful Vokkaliga community stays firmly within the Congress fold at a time when he is trying to consolidate himself as the leader of the second-largest dominant community in Karnataka until the last census was conducted.
The Congress has been struggling to contain the damage since tabling the caste census—both within and from outside.
Shivakumar, who has been actively projecting himself as the Vokkaliga face in the party, is walking a political tightrope. With the caste survey being seen as a potential game-changer, Shivakumar has been trying to manage the discontent brewing among Vokkaliga leaders.
For Shivakumar, it’s more than just caste arithmetic—it’s about political survival.
In a closed-door meeting in Bengaluru, Shivakumar met with Vokkaliga MLAs and prominent leaders, attempting to douse the fire and listen to their concerns. The meeting came after the socio-economic and educational survey — commissioned in 2015 during Siddaramaiah’s earlier tenure — was formally handed over to ministers in the Cabinet. While parts of the report have been leaked and reported, the complete data remains confidential.
It is said that the recommendations have been made to increase reservation for OBCs from 32 per cent to 51 per cent, and for Muslims from 4 per cent to 8 per cent. This has not just drawn flak from opposition parties but also sharp reactions from within the Congress itself. The party is now facing heat from its own leaders, especially from the powerful Vokkaliga community, who feel their position is being diluted under the garb of social justice.
Sources who attended the meeting said Shivakumar assured leaders that the government would not take any hasty decisions and that the report would only be tabled after wider consultations. “The Congress government is committed to justice for all communities, and we will ensure that concerns raised by any group are looked into. There is a need to explain how the data was collected. There are apprehensions that it was not done in a scientific manner. All that will come out once we get the entire report and we are able to analyse it in toto,” a senior leader said.
But it also learnt that Vokkaliga leaders were blunt. They made it clear that they would not accept any move that chips away at their current political or reservation space. “We have communicated clearly that our position cannot be undermined in the name of social justice and there is a certain threshold that one should not cross,” said a Vokkaliga leader.
The pushback from the community is significant. Leaders questioned the delay in tabling the report and raised concerns about transparency. “Why is there no clarity? We want to know where we stand. If our numbers are shown as smaller than they are, it will affect our future — politically and in terms of welfare entitlements,” one leader said.
Shivakumar, aware of the political risk, tried to balance his party’s narrative on OBC empowerment with the anxiety among dominant communities like the Vokkaligas and Lingayats. “I have told them that no decision will be taken that harms the Vokkaligas. As a community, they have always contributed to the state’s growth and politics,” he said after the meeting.
For Shivakumar, the stakes are high. The caste census has come at a time when he is positioning himself as the next CM face. Losing grip on the Vokkaliga vote base would dent his ambitions.
Congress MLC Dinesh Gooligowda, also a Vokkaliga, shot off a letter to chief minister Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, asking for either a committee of experts or a Cabinet sub-committee to study the findings. “In light of the concerns raised, I request the formation of a sub-committee to thoroughly study the survey and submit its findings,” he wrote.
The 50-volume caste census report, conducted first by the Kantharaj Commision and later taken over by Jayaprakash Hegde, was finally tabled with the Siddaramaiah Cabinet last Friday. It has already seen pushback not just from the Congress but also from BJP, JD(S), and religious leaders representing the Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Critics have questioned the methodology of the survey and demanded that it be redone.
While the leaked parts of the report do not explicitly mention the population figures of Vokkaligas and Lingayats, it outlines category-based reservations. Under Category III(A), which includes Vokkaligas and two other communities, the population is estimated at 73 lakh, with a 7 per cent quota recommendation. Under Category III(B), which covers Veerashaiva-Lingayats and five other castes, the figure is 81.3 lakh, with an 8 per cent suggested quota. The state’s overall population is pegged at 5.9 crore.
Industries minister MB Patil, a prominent Lingayat voice in the Cabinet, also flagged concerns. “If we count all the Lingayat sub-sects and those listed under 3B, their total population easily crosses one crore,” he said.
Senior Congress leader Shamanur Shivashankarappa, who is also president of the All-India Veerashaiva Mahasabha, called the survey “unscientific” and claimed that no one had even visited his home for data collection.
Shivakumar, while keeping a low profile on the specifics, said: “Everyone is trying to safeguard their communities. That’s their democratic right. The cabinet will take up the matter on April 17, and the CM has said the assembly will also debate the issue. We won’t rush into it.”
The 1990 Chenna Reddy Commission had estimated Lingayats at 19 per cent and Vokkaligas at 17 per cent, and that data had formed the basis for a 4 per cent quota for Muslims by the then Deve Gowda government. According to the 2015 survey, Muslims constitute 12.6 per cent of the state’s population. The largest single group is the Scheduled Castes, with a population of around 1.1 crore, spread across 108 sub-castes.
The BJP has gone on the offensive, accusing the Congress of engineering the survey to appease minorities. “This is clearly a fabricated report. It’s obvious that the CM dictated the numbers. Otherwise, how do you explain Muslims being shown as the largest community?” said senior BJP leader and leader of opposition R Ashoka.
