Protests by the Maratha, OBC and Dhangar communities in Marathwada are expected to cast a long shadow over voting patterns in the state, much like during the Lok Sabha polls. With BJP reeling from its poor performance even five months after the polls (it did not win even a single of the four seats it contested in Marathwada, and Mahayuti won just one-Aurangabad-out of the region’s eight seats) party workers, wary of another defeat, were recently told by NDA chairman and Union home minister Amit Shah that the Centre would help to resolve the issue.Besides voter fatigue and anti-incumbency sentiment, the Mahayuti’s poor show was largely explained by the region’s dominant community, the Marathas, led by quota activist Manoj Jarange, turning their backs on the governing alliance. With internal tensions over issues like claiming credit for the Ladki Bahin Yojana already weakening Mahayuti, the ongoing quota dispute does not bode well for the BJP-led alliance, though it won’t spare MVA either.
Jarange’s jang
Jarange has said Maharashtra should not go to the polls and the model code of conduct must not come into force until the govt declares a quota for Marathas from the OBC share. “Marathas account for nearly 55% of the state’s population. Mahayuti will face a poll debacle if it attracts the wrath of our community,” said Jarange, who went on six hunger strikes within a year over his demand that Marathas be given Kunbi certificates to make them eligible for OBC benefits. This has riled the OBC communities, led by Laxman Hake, a former member of the Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission. Hake, who too resorted to hunger strikes to protect OBC reservation from “encroachment” by Marathas, told TOI that the Maratha stir would perhaps have the unwitting effect of uniting OBCs: “Though OBCs form the largest community in the state, they are not united. Heavily influenced by regional politicians, instead of thinking about the community’s best overall interests, they focus on the narrow minded issues of local politicians. So, our agitation is an attempt to voice the concerns of the entire community. If we unite, it will have a deciding impact.”
Tightrope walk for Mahayuti
Realising that quota protests will likely impact the poll outcome in most regions, and not just Marathwada, the govt has been on a tightrope walk on the matter. For example, the Dhangar agitation for inclusion in the ST category has compelled the govt to hold talks with everyone. Thus, in May, chief minister Eknath Shinde said the govt had “walked the extra mile” to grant 10% SEBC reservation to Marathas by distributing thousands of Kunbi certificates. But Marathas rejected it saying that the 10% quota is legally fragile and only reservation through OBC quota would be foolproof. This made Shinde and other Mahayuti leaders blame the opposition for not attending an all-party meet “to build consensus”. Hake seems to have had the last word. He cornered Mahayuti saying, “We’ll ensure the victory of 50 MLAs who supported us in protecting the OBC quota. We’ll inflict loss upon an equal number who colluded with the forces determined to end our quota.”
Not easy for MVA either
MVA is keen on carrying the LS poll momentum in Marathwada but Jarange has not spared its leaders either, accusing them of letting down the community. A month ago, a group of Maratha protesters stopped NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar‘s car in Barshi and shouted disruptive slogans during his rally. Some of them met him at his residence in Pune a day later and told him to clear his stand on the quota issue. On Oct 4, Pawar reiterated his stand that Marathas should be given reservation without disturbing the quota of other communities and said his party will support the govt if it brings an amendment and increases quotas to 75%. But Jarange insists on the inclusion of Marathas in the OBC category within the existing reservation. As for Hake, he trashed Pawar’s proposal, calling it unconstitutional.
Has caste buried other issues?
Social activist and independent observer Vishnu Dhobale said caste agitation has become an easy way to establish political leadership: “It takes attention away from common issues of public good. It will affect the poll manifestos of parties.”
But state president of Sambhaji Brigade, Pravin Gaikwad, said the Maratha agitation will have limited impact on the assembly polls. “Though caste rallies draw crowds, people don’t necessarily vote on those issues as other calculations are involved. Thus, I feel the impact of the Maratha agitation will be limited. Economically, the Maratha community in Marathwada is weaker compared to those residing in western Maharashtra or Vidarbha. Therefore, the anger against established politicians is more in Marathwada, which percolates through votes.”
