US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a virtual dead heat, each garnering 48 percent of the popular vote, according to the latest National Poll by The New York Times and Siena College. This survey, conducted from October 20 to 23, reflects the current voter sentiment in the months leading up to the election.
Kamala Harris’s position
Harris‘s standing appears to have declined slightly since an earlier Times/Siena poll in early October, where she held a narrow lead over Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Despite the overall tie, the race is intensifying in seven critical battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—where both candidates have concentrated their campaign efforts.
Voter dynamics
Among voters who have already cast their ballots, Harris enjoys a significant lead of 59 percent to 40 percent over Trump. Also, 15 percent of voters remain undecided, with Harris currently leading in that group, capturing 42 percent compared to Trump’s 32 percent.
Favorability ratings
In terms of favorability, Harris is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters, up from 46 percent, while Trump’s favorability has also risen from 47 percent to 48 percent. Harris leads Trump among women (54 percent to 42 percent), while Trump commands a lead among men (55 percent to 41 percent).
Congressional races reflect similar divisions
The poll indicates a divided electorate regarding congressional races, with 48 percent of voters expressing intentions to support Republican candidates and 48 percent leaning towards Democrats.
Key issues influencing voter sentiment
A significant concern for voters is immigration, with 15 percent identifying it as their top issue, an increase from 12 percent. Trump has capitalized on this, promising to execute “the largest deportation in American history” and positioning himself as the more trustworthy candidate on immigration issues, leading Harris by 11 points on this issue.
Economic concerns
28 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. Harris has narrowed the gap with Trump on economic management. Last month, Trump held a 13-point advantage, but that lead has shrunk to 6 points. Harris also maintains a substantial lead of 16 points on the issue of abortion access, which remains central to her campaign strategy.
Poll methodology
The poll surveyed 2,516 voters nationwide, with interviews conducted via telephone in both English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error is approximately ±2.2 percentage points, ensuring that the results are reflective of the broader voting population.
As Election Day approaches, both candidates will likely continue to ramp up their campaign efforts to sway undecided voters in this highly competitive race.
