In a recent series of polls, Vice President Kamala Harris has shown strong momentum against former President Donald Trump in key battleground states.
According to a Cook Political Report survey, Harris holds an average 48% – 47% lead over Trump across seven battleground states, outperforming him in all but Georgia, where they are tied, and Nevada, where Trump has a slight edge.When third-party candidates are included, Harris’s lead increases to 46% – 44%.
The Cook Political Report’s swing state poll reveals that Harris has gained six points against Trump since May. In a one-on-one contest, Harris leads Trump 48% – 46% in Arizona, ties with him at 48% – 48% in Georgia, leads 49% – 46% in Michigan, holds a 48% – 47% edge in North Carolina, marginally leads 49% – 48% in Pennsylvania, and has a 49% – 46% advantage in Wisconsin. She only trails in Nevada with 45% – 48%.
When factoring in third-party candidates, Harris’s standing shifts slightly. She leads Trump 46% – 42% in Arizona, remains tied in Georgia at 46% – 46%, maintains a 46% – 44% lead in Michigan and North Carolina, increases her lead to 48% – 43% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and falls further behind in Nevada with 42% – 47%.
When President Joe Biden was the presumed Democratic nominee, the introduction of third-party candidates generally benefited Trump. However, recent polls offer mixed results on whether third-party candidates harm Trump more than Harris. Some polls indicate Trump performs worse against Harris when third-party candidates are included, though RealClearPolitics aggregates show varying outcomes.
For instance, in a two-way matchup, Harris holds a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the most recent national RealClearPolitics aggregate polls. Yet, this lead narrows to 0.8 points when third-party candidates are added.
The Cook Political Report’s findings also spotlight Harris’s success in North Carolina, a state often considered one of the most reliably Republican among battleground states. According to the most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate, Trump maintains his second-largest advantage in North Carolina with a 2.4-point lead, only trailing his 3.5-point lead in Nevada. Notably, Nevada has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004.
In response to Nevada’s service-oriented economy, Trump recently proposed a “no tax on tips” policy. Harris echoed this proposal during a rally in Las Vegas last week. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates this policy could cost between $150 billion and $250 billion over the next decade.
Harris’s overall performance has narrowed Trump’s lead in the swing states by about six points since May. Back in May, the Cook Political Report’s survey indicated that Trump led Biden by an average of three points across the same battleground states, either leading or tied with him in all seven.
That prior survey also showed Senate Democrats performing better than Biden in these key states, raising concerns within the party and contributing to unrest against Biden.
The latest poll from Cook Political Report, conducted from July 26 to August 2, sampled 2,867 likely voters. It was conducted by GS Strategy Group, a Republican polling firm, and BSG, a Democratic polling firm.
Trump’s campaign has anticipated a tightening of poll numbers after Harris was promoted to the top of the Democratic ticket last month.
Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s pollster, remarked, “There would be a ‘honeymoon’ phase for Harris,” but contended that the dynamics of the race wouldn’t change much.
Recently, the Cook Political Report’s analysis adjusted the status of three states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”
According to a Cook Political Report survey, Harris holds an average 48% – 47% lead over Trump across seven battleground states, outperforming him in all but Georgia, where they are tied, and Nevada, where Trump has a slight edge.When third-party candidates are included, Harris’s lead increases to 46% – 44%.
The Cook Political Report’s swing state poll reveals that Harris has gained six points against Trump since May. In a one-on-one contest, Harris leads Trump 48% – 46% in Arizona, ties with him at 48% – 48% in Georgia, leads 49% – 46% in Michigan, holds a 48% – 47% edge in North Carolina, marginally leads 49% – 48% in Pennsylvania, and has a 49% – 46% advantage in Wisconsin. She only trails in Nevada with 45% – 48%.
When factoring in third-party candidates, Harris’s standing shifts slightly. She leads Trump 46% – 42% in Arizona, remains tied in Georgia at 46% – 46%, maintains a 46% – 44% lead in Michigan and North Carolina, increases her lead to 48% – 43% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and falls further behind in Nevada with 42% – 47%.
When President Joe Biden was the presumed Democratic nominee, the introduction of third-party candidates generally benefited Trump. However, recent polls offer mixed results on whether third-party candidates harm Trump more than Harris. Some polls indicate Trump performs worse against Harris when third-party candidates are included, though RealClearPolitics aggregates show varying outcomes.
For instance, in a two-way matchup, Harris holds a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the most recent national RealClearPolitics aggregate polls. Yet, this lead narrows to 0.8 points when third-party candidates are added.
The Cook Political Report’s findings also spotlight Harris’s success in North Carolina, a state often considered one of the most reliably Republican among battleground states. According to the most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate, Trump maintains his second-largest advantage in North Carolina with a 2.4-point lead, only trailing his 3.5-point lead in Nevada. Notably, Nevada has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004.
In response to Nevada’s service-oriented economy, Trump recently proposed a “no tax on tips” policy. Harris echoed this proposal during a rally in Las Vegas last week. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates this policy could cost between $150 billion and $250 billion over the next decade.
Harris’s overall performance has narrowed Trump’s lead in the swing states by about six points since May. Back in May, the Cook Political Report’s survey indicated that Trump led Biden by an average of three points across the same battleground states, either leading or tied with him in all seven.
That prior survey also showed Senate Democrats performing better than Biden in these key states, raising concerns within the party and contributing to unrest against Biden.
The latest poll from Cook Political Report, conducted from July 26 to August 2, sampled 2,867 likely voters. It was conducted by GS Strategy Group, a Republican polling firm, and BSG, a Democratic polling firm.
Trump’s campaign has anticipated a tightening of poll numbers after Harris was promoted to the top of the Democratic ticket last month.
Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s pollster, remarked, “There would be a ‘honeymoon’ phase for Harris,” but contended that the dynamics of the race wouldn’t change much.
Recently, the Cook Political Report’s analysis adjusted the status of three states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”
